The Initiative and Referendum Institute at USC Releases Election Preview
The November general election is less than two months away, and the statewide ballot proposition landscape is nearly complete. A total of 187 propositions are currently set to go before the voters in 32 states in November, up from 162 measures in November 2004.
The Initiative and Referendum Institute at University of Southern California has published a state-by-state Ballotwatch overview that lists all of the November ballot propositions (For the full report, please go to: http://www.iandrinstitute.org/BW%202006-2%20(September%20Preview).pdf)
Some states are still counting petitions and courts may still intervene so these numbers may change slightly.
Of the measures, 78 are initiatives (new laws qualified by petition), four are referendums (proposals to repeal existing laws), one was placed on the ballot by a commission, and the rest are legislative measures. In 2004, there were 62 initiatives and referendums. The 81 initiatives for the year (including the three that were voted on in the summer) is the third largest total since the initiative process was first used in 1902, and shows that initiative the wave set off by California’s tax-cutting Proposition 13 is 1978 is still swelling.
HOT TRENDS
One of the hottest issues this year is eminent domain. In the wake of the U. S. Supreme Court’s Kelo v. New London decision in 2005 that allowed governments to condemn property for use by a private developer, legislatures and citizens in several states are trying to foreclose such takings with constitutional amendments. Twelve states have measures on the ballot that ban the use of eminent domain for private purposes: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, and South Carolina. Arizona’s and Montana’s measures also require compensation for regulatory takings, following Oregon’s Measure 37 from 2004, and Washington has an initiative focused only on compensation for regulatory takings.
Another hot issue is a carryover from 2004: gay marriage. Since the supreme court of Massachusetts brought this issue to a boil with its holding in February 2004 that the state constitution contained a right to gay marriage, 15 states have amended their constitutions to preclude such interpretations, explicitly defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Nine more states have marriage amendments on the ballot in 2006: Alabama (approved in June), Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In Colorado, the legislature placed Referendum I on the ballot that would create “domestic partnerships” that grant same-sex couples most of the legal rights of married couples.
Tobacco and smoking are the focus of nine measures. Dueling measures sponsored by the health and tobacco industries that ban smoking in public places are on the ballot in Arizona, Nevada and Ohio. In Arizona, California, and South Dakota, voters will decide whether to increase the tax on tobacco products, with proceeds dedicated to health and other programs. Initiatives in Colorado and Nevada propose to legalize possession of one ounce of marijuana, and South Dakota voters will consider legalizing marijuana for medical purposes.
Taxes and spending, as usual, are the subject of many ballot propositions. At least 40 measures propose to increase or decrease taxes or restrict or lock in spending. Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, and Oregon have TABOR-style measures on the ballot that restrict spending growth to inflation plus the population growth rate. TABOR-type measures were removed from the ballot by the state supreme courts in Nevada and Oklahoma because of single subject violations and problems with petitions (Nevada) and illegal signature collection (Oklahoma). South Carolina and South Dakota have measures limiting the growth of property tax assessments to approximately 3% per year. Education is another perennially popular subject, with 18 measures concerning education slated for November.
One issue that failed to emerge in a big despite some hype is the minimum wage. Liberal groups fastened on this issue as a way to increase turnout for Democratic candidates, as a counterbalance to the gay marriage amendments perceived by some to have helped the GOP in 2004 (although political scientists have generally concluded that they did not help.) Proponents of the minimum wage measures announced plans to place measures on the ballot in 11 states, to match the number marriage amendments in 2004, but ended up with only six measures (Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio).
STATES TO WATCH
South Dakota. In an effort to create a test case for the U. S. Supreme Court to reverse Roe v. Wade, the South Dakota legislature passed a law banning abortion in early 2006. Abortion rights activists promptly collected enough signatures to hold a referendum on the new law, in which the people will have the option to repeal the law. This election will be watched closely by pro-choice and pro-life activists nationwide. A Mason-Dixon poll in late July showed voters are leaning toward repeal of the ban by an 8% margin.
Arizona. The busiest state this year with 19 measures, Arizona is a microcosm of the national landscape. The ballot contains a marriage amendment (Prop 107), an eminent domain measure (Prop 207), a proposal to increase the minimum wage (Prop 202), competing anti-smoking measures (Props 201, 206), and competing land conservation measures (Props 105, 106). There is also a cluster of issues placed on the ballot by the legislature focusing on illegal immigration. Prop 300 would deny state services to illegal aliens, Prop 100 would deny them bail in certain circumstances, Prop 102 would prohibit them from receiving punitive damages in lawsuits, and Prop 103 declares English the state’s official language. Two somewhat unusual initiatives are also on the Arizona ballot. Prop 200 would award $1 million to a random voter each general election as a way to increase turnout, and Prop 204 would require farmers to provide pregnant pigs and calves a certain minimal amount of living space.
California. “Only” 13 propositions are on the ballot in the Golden State, down from the historical average of 18 in even-numbered years, but those measures propose combined spending of close to $50 billion, almost all of it with borrowed money. Topping the list are five bond issues authorizing the state to borrow a combined $43 billion. The money is dedicated to highways and roads (Prop 1B), school buildings (Prop 1D), water projects (Prop 1E, 84), and low-income housing (Prop 1C). A citizen initiative would establish a $4 billion alternative energy program (Prop 87). Tax increases are also on the agenda, with Prop 86 proposing a cigarette tax increase of $2.60 per pack to fund tobacco awareness programs and hospitals, and Prop 88 proposing a
$50 parcel tax for public schools. “Voters turned down an initiative to tax millionaires for universal preschool and a $600 million bond measure for libraries in June, so the public’s appetite for government spending is not unlimited, but the fate of these measures will give a barometer on whether big government is coming back,” said IRI president and University of Southern California professor John G. Matsusaka.
Louisiana. In the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana legislature held special sessions in 2005 and 2006, producing a set of 21 constitutional amendments for the voters to ponder this fall. Thirteen proposed amendments will be decided in a September special election and eight in November. Some amendments were placed on the ballot over strong opposition from New Orleans politicians. Among the most contentious is a measure to combine the seven tax assessors in New Orleans into a single office, and another to combine the scattered levee boards in the region in a single board.
The Michigan ballot presents an interesting mix of issues. Proposal 2, supported by Ward Connerly, would prohibit the University of Michigan and other state universities from giving preferential treatment on the basis of race. An endorsement by voters could revive the campaign to ban racial preferences, which seems to have stalled after early successes in California and Washington. The initiative will also test the idea that voters oppose such measures if told they may end affirmative action since the Secretary of State included the phrase “affirmative action” in the ballot description against the wishes of proponents. Proposal 5 would set minimum spending levels for schools, part of a growing trend to use initiatives to take budget decisions out of the hands of the legislature. Proposal 6 is a TABOR-style measure that would limit the growth of state spending to inflation and the growth rate of population. And Proposition 3 provides a little local color, a referendum that asks voters to repeal a recently enacted law that allows hunting of mourning doves.
For the full report, log onto:
http://www.iandrinstitute.org/BW%202006-1%20(July%20Preview).pdf
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