Will the high court turn right?

After more than 20 years spent covering the U.S. Supreme Court for the Los Angeles Times, David Savage has acquired an insider’s view of the justices and their decision-making.

 

Savage shared his observations – along with some predictions of the court’s future – with the USC Law community during a Feb. 5 installment of the “Conversations with the Dean” speaker series.

 

“I don’t think that this group of justices is going to make a dramatic change, because Justice Anthony Kennedy is still in the middle (with four conservatives and four liberals on either side),” Savage said. “This term, I think they will uphold the partial-birth abortion federal law, they’re going to say something that knocks down voluntary school integration programs … they should be conservative opinions, but not radically conservative opinions.”

 

Savage is the author of Turning Right: the Making of the Rehnquist Supreme Court, published in 1992, which tracked the court’s shift to the right that began with President Richard Nixon’s four appointments, and continued with three appointments by President Ronald Regan and two by President George H.W. Bush.

 

“The whole idea was to sort of move the court to the right, overturn Roe v. Wade, bring back some religion in schools, and restore the death penalty,” Savage said.

 

Shortly after Savage’s book came out, however, the trend seemed to slow. Two decisions – one upholding abortion rights and another keeping religion out of schools – surprised conservatives because several justices seemed to have changed their minds.

 

When the court began its next term, “it was really like the whole Regan-Bush era had failed, because Clinton was elected that fall, so they weren’t going to get any more conservative justices,” Savage said.

 

However, another Supreme Court shift toward the right could be on the horizon, Savage said. President George W. Bush recently nominated current Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito. The election of a conservative president in 2008 could mean two or more additional conservative nominations. It is unlikely that hotbed issues would be reversed in one decision by a more conservative court, Savage said, but the justices may begin to “chip away” at decisions like Roe vs. Wade.

 

While taking questions from the USC Law audience, Savage reflected on changes in the way the court conducts its business under Chief Justice Roberts.

 

“Roberts is an amazingly smart, adept guy who runs the court really well,” Savage said. “He asks very pointed, quick questions. Most of the arguments are lively and very pointed, and the attorneys better be prepared.”

 

Savage has written extensively about many of the most controversial issues facing the court this term, including abortion rights, prison sentencing, immigration and affirmative action in schools. Above all, Savage said his articles must address the significance of a ruling or issue facing the court and be accessible to a broad audience.

 

While lawyers and academics want to know how legal doctrine has changed, Savage said, “I want to know, ‘What does this case mean? What’s the practical implication? What impact does it have?’ That’s what I care about.”